The Five Ecosystems I’m Watching in 2010 (iPhone, Facebook, Twitter, AppleTV, and Google)

I’ve been thinking about doing a 2010 predictions post for this year. In lieu of doing one, I thought I’d highlight the biggest platform battles that I find interesting in the upcoming year:

Facebook vs Application Developers
I (obviously) have a vested interest in how this plays out given my work with Serious Business. Nonetheless, I’m fascinated to see how Facebook, with its growing might and clout, manages its relationship with the developer ecosystem that is both growing on the back of and driving the growth of Facebook. There are literally billions of dollars at stake here. Will developers abandon the Facebook platform and look for greener pastures? Will Facebook look to extract too much from the developers who live on and create value for the Facebook platform? This will be interesting, I’m sure.

Google vs Content “Farms”
This one is very interesting to me. What was once a fairly stealth industry of content farms and sites building content specifically tailored for Google SEO has come into the limelight of late. What will Google do? Is it a threat they want to police or a necessary evil given their ubiquity?

Apple vs iPhone Application Developers
There are clearly a number of iPhone app developers who are complaining about Apple’s approval process and restrictions about what app developers can and cannot do. Is it possible that Apple could push developers to look elsewhere, namely Android? Will the Google Nexus One move developers en masse to the Android platform? Or will developers grin and bear it so long as the iPhone is the dominant platform?

AppleTV vs content owners
I’m hoping to get an AppleTV for Christmas (fingers crossed). I’m very curious to see whether the AppleTV turns into iTunes 2.0 with Apple capturing a large chunk of the margins for the responsibility of delivering a hardware + software experience that gets consumers to sign up in meaningful numbers. Will content owners push back? Can they?

Twitter and the Twitter App / Service Ecosystem
One of my favorite things to watch. Twitter has raised a ton of money. And they have app developers who have built really interesting applications and services on top of Twitter but have yet to monetize. Will Twitter acquire some of the most promising development shops? Will they change the terms of service to put those folks out of business? Something in between? I’m curious.

What do you think? What’s on your mind for 2010?